In this large-scale retrospective data-driven analysis, we examined global trends in vaccine confidence using data from 290 surveys done between September, 2015, and December, 2019, across 149 countries, and including 284 381 individuals. We used a Bayesian multinomial logit Gaussian process model to produce estimates of public perceptions towards the safety, importance, and effectiveness of vaccines.
Findings
Between November, 2015, and December, 2019, we estimate that confidence in the importance, safety, and effectiveness of vaccines fell in Afghanistan, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines, and South Korea. We found significant increases in respondents strongly disagreeing that vaccines are safe between 2015 and 2019 in six countries: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Serbia. We find signs that confidence has improved between 2018 and 2019 in some EU member states, including Finland, France, Ireland, and Italy, with recent losses detected in Poland. Confidence in the importance of vaccines (rather than in their safety or effectiveness) had the strongest univariate association with vaccine uptake compared with other determinants considered. When a link was found between individuals’ religious beliefs and uptake, findings indicated that minority religious groups tended to have lower probabilities of uptake.
Importance
Percentage of people who strongly agree that vaccines are important.
The map shows the proportion of the population who strongly agree vaccines are important in 2020.
The tooltips show the modelled agreement from 2015 to 2020.
Safety
Percentage of people who strongly agree that vaccines are safe.
The map shows the proportion of the population who strongly agree vaccines are safe in 2020.
The tooltips show the modelled agreement from 2015 to 2020.
Effectiveness
Percentage of people who strongly agree that vaccines are effective.
The map shows the proportion of the population who strongly agree vaccines are safe in 2020.
The tooltips show the modelled agreement from 2015 to 2020.